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Back to VividCortex/ewma
This commit is contained in:
parent
77dc3b1e85
commit
5fca7ea49e
14 changed files with 300 additions and 97 deletions
|
@ -3,23 +3,19 @@ package main
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import (
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"sync"
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"github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma"
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)
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const (
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SizeEstimatorEwmaDecay = 100.0
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"github.com/VividCortex/ewma"
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)
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type QuestionSizeEstimator struct {
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sync.RWMutex
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minQuestionSize int
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ewma *ewma.EWMA
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ewma ewma.MovingAverage
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}
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func NewQuestionSizeEstimator() QuestionSizeEstimator {
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return QuestionSizeEstimator{
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minQuestionSize: InitialMinQuestionSize,
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ewma: ewma.NewMovingAverage(SizeEstimatorEwmaDecay),
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ewma: &ewma.SimpleEWMA{},
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}
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}
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@ -15,10 +15,10 @@ import (
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"sync"
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"time"
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"github.com/VividCortex/ewma"
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"github.com/jedisct1/dlog"
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clocksmith "github.com/jedisct1/go-clocksmith"
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stamps "github.com/jedisct1/go-dnsstamps"
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"github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma"
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"github.com/miekg/dns"
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"golang.org/x/crypto/ed25519"
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)
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@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ type DOHClientCreds struct {
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type ServerInfo struct {
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DOHClientCreds DOHClientCreds
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lastActionTS time.Time
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rtt *ewma.EWMA
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rtt ewma.MovingAverage
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Name string
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HostName string
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UDPAddr *net.UDPAddr
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2
go.mod
2
go.mod
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@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ go 1.18
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require (
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github.com/BurntSushi/toml v1.0.0
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github.com/VividCortex/ewma v1.2.0
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github.com/coreos/go-systemd v0.0.0-20191104093116-d3cd4ed1dbcf
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github.com/dchest/safefile v0.0.0-20151022103144-855e8d98f185
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github.com/hashicorp/go-immutable-radix v1.3.1
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@ -17,7 +18,6 @@ require (
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github.com/jedisct1/xsecretbox v0.0.0-20210927135450-ebe41aef7bef
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github.com/k-sone/critbitgo v1.4.0
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github.com/kardianos/service v1.2.1
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github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma v0.0.0-20210320054258-4f227d7eb8a2
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github.com/miekg/dns v1.1.48
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github.com/powerman/check v1.6.0
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golang.org/x/crypto v0.0.0-20220331220935-ae2d96664a29
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|
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4
go.sum
4
go.sum
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@ -52,6 +52,8 @@ github.com/OneOfOne/xxhash v1.2.2/go.mod h1:HSdplMjZKSmBqAxg5vPj2TmRDmfkzw+cTzAE
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github.com/OpenPeeDeeP/depguard v1.0.1 h1:VlW4R6jmBIv3/u1JNlawEvJMM4J+dPORPaZasQee8Us=
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github.com/OpenPeeDeeP/depguard v1.0.1/go.mod h1:xsIw86fROiiwelg+jB2uM9PiKihMMmUx/1V+TNhjQvM=
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github.com/StackExchange/wmi v0.0.0-20190523213315-cbe66965904d/go.mod h1:3eOhrUMpNV+6aFIbp5/iudMxNCF27Vw2OZgy4xEx0Fg=
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github.com/VividCortex/ewma v1.2.0 h1:f58SaIzcDXrSy3kWaHNvuJgJ3Nmz59Zji6XoJR/q1ow=
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github.com/VividCortex/ewma v1.2.0/go.mod h1:nz4BbCtbLyFDeC9SUHbtcT5644juEuWfUAUnGx7j5l4=
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github.com/alecthomas/template v0.0.0-20160405071501-a0175ee3bccc/go.mod h1:LOuyumcjzFXgccqObfd/Ljyb9UuFJ6TxHnclSeseNhc=
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github.com/alecthomas/template v0.0.0-20190718012654-fb15b899a751/go.mod h1:LOuyumcjzFXgccqObfd/Ljyb9UuFJ6TxHnclSeseNhc=
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github.com/alecthomas/units v0.0.0-20151022065526-2efee857e7cf/go.mod h1:ybxpYRFXyAe+OPACYpWeL0wqObRcbAqCMya13uyzqw0=
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|
@ -421,8 +423,6 @@ github.com/letsencrypt/pkcs11key/v4 v4.0.0/go.mod h1:EFUvBDay26dErnNb70Nd0/VW3tJ
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github.com/lib/pq v1.0.0/go.mod h1:5WUZQaWbwv1U+lTReE5YruASi9Al49XbQIvNi/34Woo=
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github.com/lib/pq v1.8.0/go.mod h1:AlVN5x4E4T544tWzH6hKfbfQvm3HdbOxrmggDNAPY9o=
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github.com/lib/pq v1.9.0/go.mod h1:AlVN5x4E4T544tWzH6hKfbfQvm3HdbOxrmggDNAPY9o=
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github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma v0.0.0-20210320054258-4f227d7eb8a2 h1:eD3+F7WMC7wryFGBrLSyzoRqK+kR7nCT/9VT2E3XJzc=
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github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma v0.0.0-20210320054258-4f227d7eb8a2/go.mod h1:SJvYtJnDKXqTrIvyRocCJmuNuM3bUb4krn9UbZXj+tw=
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github.com/logrusorgru/aurora v0.0.0-20181002194514-a7b3b318ed4e/go.mod h1:7rIyQOR62GCctdiQpZ/zOJlFyk6y+94wXzv6RNZgaR4=
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github.com/magiconair/properties v1.8.0/go.mod h1:PppfXfuXeibc/6YijjN8zIbojt8czPbwD3XqdrwzmxQ=
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github.com/magiconair/properties v1.8.1 h1:ZC2Vc7/ZFkGmsVC9KvOjumD+G5lXy2RtTKyzRKO2BQ4=
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|
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3
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/.gitignore
generated
vendored
Normal file
3
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/.gitignore
generated
vendored
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
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.DS_Store
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.*.sw?
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/coverage.txt
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3
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/.whitesource
generated
vendored
Normal file
3
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/.whitesource
generated
vendored
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
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{
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"settingsInheritedFrom": "VividCortex/whitesource-config@master"
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}
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12
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/LICENSE → vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/LICENSE
generated
vendored
12
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/LICENSE → vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/LICENSE
generated
vendored
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@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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MIT License
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The MIT License
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Copyright (c) 2021 lifenjoiner
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Copyright (c) 2013 VividCortex
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Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
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of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
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@ -9,13 +9,13 @@ to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
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copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
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furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
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The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
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copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in
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all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
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IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
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FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
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AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
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LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
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OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
|
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SOFTWARE.
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OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN
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THE SOFTWARE.
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145
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/README.md
generated
vendored
Normal file
145
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/README.md
generated
vendored
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
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# EWMA
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[](https://godoc.org/github.com/VividCortex/ewma)
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
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[](https://codecov.io/gh/VividCortex/ewma)
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This repo provides Exponentially Weighted Moving Average algorithms, or EWMAs for short, [based on our
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Quantifying Abnormal Behavior talk](https://vividcortex.com/blog/2013/07/23/a-fast-go-library-for-exponential-moving-averages/).
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### Exponentially Weighted Moving Average
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An exponentially weighted moving average is a way to continuously compute a type of
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average for a series of numbers, as the numbers arrive. After a value in the series is
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added to the average, its weight in the average decreases exponentially over time. This
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biases the average towards more recent data. EWMAs are useful for several reasons, chiefly
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their inexpensive computational and memory cost, as well as the fact that they represent
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the recent central tendency of the series of values.
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The EWMA algorithm requires a decay factor, alpha. The larger the alpha, the more the average
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is biased towards recent history. The alpha must be between 0 and 1, and is typically
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a fairly small number, such as 0.04. We will discuss the choice of alpha later.
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The algorithm works thus, in pseudocode:
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1. Multiply the next number in the series by alpha.
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2. Multiply the current value of the average by 1 minus alpha.
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3. Add the result of steps 1 and 2, and store it as the new current value of the average.
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4. Repeat for each number in the series.
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There are special-case behaviors for how to initialize the current value, and these vary
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between implementations. One approach is to start with the first value in the series;
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another is to average the first 10 or so values in the series using an arithmetic average,
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and then begin the incremental updating of the average. Each method has pros and cons.
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It may help to look at it pictorially. Suppose the series has five numbers, and we choose
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alpha to be 0.50 for simplicity. Here's the series, with numbers in the neighborhood of 300.
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
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Now let's take the moving average of those numbers. First we set the average to the value
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of the first number.
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
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Next we multiply the next number by alpha, multiply the current value by 1-alpha, and add
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them to generate a new value.
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
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This continues until we are done.
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
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Notice how each of the values in the series decays by half each time a new value
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is added, and the top of the bars in the lower portion of the image represents the
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size of the moving average. It is a smoothed, or low-pass, average of the original
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series.
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For further reading, see [Exponentially weighted moving average](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Exponential_moving_average) on wikipedia.
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### Choosing Alpha
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Consider a fixed-size sliding-window moving average (not an exponentially weighted moving average)
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that averages over the previous N samples. What is the average age of each sample? It is N/2.
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Now suppose that you wish to construct a EWMA whose samples have the same average age. The formula
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to compute the alpha required for this is: alpha = 2/(N+1). Proof is in the book
|
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"Production and Operations Analysis" by Steven Nahmias.
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So, for example, if you have a time-series with samples once per second, and you want to get the
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moving average over the previous minute, you should use an alpha of .032786885. This, by the way,
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is the constant alpha used for this repository's SimpleEWMA.
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### Implementations
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This repository contains two implementations of the EWMA algorithm, with different properties.
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The implementations all conform to the MovingAverage interface, and the constructor returns
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that type.
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Current implementations assume an implicit time interval of 1.0 between every sample added.
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That is, the passage of time is treated as though it's the same as the arrival of samples.
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If you need time-based decay when samples are not arriving precisely at set intervals, then
|
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this package will not support your needs at present.
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#### SimpleEWMA
|
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|
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A SimpleEWMA is designed for low CPU and memory consumption. It **will** have different behavior than the VariableEWMA
|
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for multiple reasons. It has no warm-up period and it uses a constant
|
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decay. These properties let it use less memory. It will also behave
|
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differently when it's equal to zero, which is assumed to mean
|
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uninitialized, so if a value is likely to actually become zero over time,
|
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then any non-zero value will cause a sharp jump instead of a small change.
|
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#### VariableEWMA
|
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Unlike SimpleEWMA, this supports a custom age which must be stored, and thus uses more memory.
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It also has a "warmup" time when you start adding values to it. It will report a value of 0.0
|
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until you have added the required number of samples to it. It uses some memory to store the
|
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number of samples added to it. As a result it uses a little over twice the memory of SimpleEWMA.
|
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|
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## Usage
|
||||
|
||||
### API Documentation
|
||||
|
||||
View the GoDoc generated documentation [here](http://godoc.org/github.com/VividCortex/ewma).
|
||||
|
||||
```go
|
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package main
|
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|
||||
import "github.com/VividCortex/ewma"
|
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|
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func main() {
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samples := [100]float64{
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4599, 5711, 4746, 4621, 5037, 4218, 4925, 4281, 5207, 5203, 5594, 5149,
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}
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e := ewma.NewMovingAverage() //=> Returns a SimpleEWMA if called without params
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a := ewma.NewMovingAverage(5) //=> returns a VariableEWMA with a decay of 2 / (5 + 1)
|
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|
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for _, f := range samples {
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e.Add(f)
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a.Add(f)
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}
|
||||
|
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e.Value() //=> 13.577404704631077
|
||||
a.Value() //=> 1.5806140565521463e-12
|
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}
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||||
```
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## Contributing
|
||||
|
||||
We only accept pull requests for minor fixes or improvements. This includes:
|
||||
|
||||
* Small bug fixes
|
||||
* Typos
|
||||
* Documentation or comments
|
||||
|
||||
Please open issues to discuss new features. Pull requests for new features will be rejected,
|
||||
so we recommend forking the repository and making changes in your fork for your use case.
|
||||
|
||||
## License
|
||||
|
||||
This repository is Copyright (c) 2013 VividCortex, Inc. All rights reserved.
|
||||
It is licensed under the MIT license. Please see the LICENSE file for applicable license terms.
|
6
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/codecov.yml
generated
vendored
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6
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/codecov.yml
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|
|||
coverage:
|
||||
status:
|
||||
project:
|
||||
default:
|
||||
threshold: 15%
|
||||
patch: off
|
126
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/ewma.go
generated
vendored
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126
vendor/github.com/VividCortex/ewma/ewma.go
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vendored
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@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
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|||
// Package ewma implements exponentially weighted moving averages.
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||||
package ewma
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||||
|
||||
// Copyright (c) 2013 VividCortex, Inc. All rights reserved.
|
||||
// Please see the LICENSE file for applicable license terms.
|
||||
|
||||
const (
|
||||
// By default, we average over a one-minute period, which means the average
|
||||
// age of the metrics in the period is 30 seconds.
|
||||
AVG_METRIC_AGE float64 = 30.0
|
||||
|
||||
// The formula for computing the decay factor from the average age comes
|
||||
// from "Production and Operations Analysis" by Steven Nahmias.
|
||||
DECAY float64 = 2 / (float64(AVG_METRIC_AGE) + 1)
|
||||
|
||||
// For best results, the moving average should not be initialized to the
|
||||
// samples it sees immediately. The book "Production and Operations
|
||||
// Analysis" by Steven Nahmias suggests initializing the moving average to
|
||||
// the mean of the first 10 samples. Until the VariableEwma has seen this
|
||||
// many samples, it is not "ready" to be queried for the value of the
|
||||
// moving average. This adds some memory cost.
|
||||
WARMUP_SAMPLES uint8 = 10
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
// MovingAverage is the interface that computes a moving average over a time-
|
||||
// series stream of numbers. The average may be over a window or exponentially
|
||||
// decaying.
|
||||
type MovingAverage interface {
|
||||
Add(float64)
|
||||
Value() float64
|
||||
Set(float64)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// NewMovingAverage constructs a MovingAverage that computes an average with the
|
||||
// desired characteristics in the moving window or exponential decay. If no
|
||||
// age is given, it constructs a default exponentially weighted implementation
|
||||
// that consumes minimal memory. The age is related to the decay factor alpha
|
||||
// by the formula given for the DECAY constant. It signifies the average age
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||||
// of the samples as time goes to infinity.
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||||
func NewMovingAverage(age ...float64) MovingAverage {
|
||||
if len(age) == 0 || age[0] == AVG_METRIC_AGE {
|
||||
return new(SimpleEWMA)
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||||
}
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||||
return &VariableEWMA{
|
||||
decay: 2 / (age[0] + 1),
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// A SimpleEWMA represents the exponentially weighted moving average of a
|
||||
// series of numbers. It WILL have different behavior than the VariableEWMA
|
||||
// for multiple reasons. It has no warm-up period and it uses a constant
|
||||
// decay. These properties let it use less memory. It will also behave
|
||||
// differently when it's equal to zero, which is assumed to mean
|
||||
// uninitialized, so if a value is likely to actually become zero over time,
|
||||
// then any non-zero value will cause a sharp jump instead of a small change.
|
||||
// However, note that this takes a long time, and the value may just
|
||||
// decays to a stable value that's close to zero, but which won't be mistaken
|
||||
// for uninitialized. See http://play.golang.org/p/litxBDr_RC for example.
|
||||
type SimpleEWMA struct {
|
||||
// The current value of the average. After adding with Add(), this is
|
||||
// updated to reflect the average of all values seen thus far.
|
||||
value float64
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Add adds a value to the series and updates the moving average.
|
||||
func (e *SimpleEWMA) Add(value float64) {
|
||||
if e.value == 0 { // this is a proxy for "uninitialized"
|
||||
e.value = value
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
e.value = (value * DECAY) + (e.value * (1 - DECAY))
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Value returns the current value of the moving average.
|
||||
func (e *SimpleEWMA) Value() float64 {
|
||||
return e.value
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Set sets the EWMA's value.
|
||||
func (e *SimpleEWMA) Set(value float64) {
|
||||
e.value = value
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// VariableEWMA represents the exponentially weighted moving average of a series of
|
||||
// numbers. Unlike SimpleEWMA, it supports a custom age, and thus uses more memory.
|
||||
type VariableEWMA struct {
|
||||
// The multiplier factor by which the previous samples decay.
|
||||
decay float64
|
||||
// The current value of the average.
|
||||
value float64
|
||||
// The number of samples added to this instance.
|
||||
count uint8
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Add adds a value to the series and updates the moving average.
|
||||
func (e *VariableEWMA) Add(value float64) {
|
||||
switch {
|
||||
case e.count < WARMUP_SAMPLES:
|
||||
e.count++
|
||||
e.value += value
|
||||
case e.count == WARMUP_SAMPLES:
|
||||
e.count++
|
||||
e.value = e.value / float64(WARMUP_SAMPLES)
|
||||
e.value = (value * e.decay) + (e.value * (1 - e.decay))
|
||||
default:
|
||||
e.value = (value * e.decay) + (e.value * (1 - e.decay))
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Value returns the current value of the average, or 0.0 if the series hasn't
|
||||
// warmed up yet.
|
||||
func (e *VariableEWMA) Value() float64 {
|
||||
if e.count <= WARMUP_SAMPLES {
|
||||
return 0.0
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return e.value
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Set sets the EWMA's value.
|
||||
func (e *VariableEWMA) Set(value float64) {
|
||||
e.value = value
|
||||
if e.count <= WARMUP_SAMPLES {
|
||||
e.count = WARMUP_SAMPLES + 1
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
15
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/.gitignore
generated
vendored
15
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/.gitignore
generated
vendored
|
@ -1,15 +0,0 @@
|
|||
# Binaries for programs and plugins
|
||||
*.exe
|
||||
*.exe~
|
||||
*.dll
|
||||
*.so
|
||||
*.dylib
|
||||
|
||||
# Test binary, built with `go test -c`
|
||||
*.test
|
||||
|
||||
# Output of the go coverage tool, specifically when used with LiteIDE
|
||||
*.out
|
||||
|
||||
# Dependency directories (remove the comment below to include it)
|
||||
# vendor/
|
17
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/README.md
generated
vendored
17
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/README.md
generated
vendored
|
@ -1,17 +0,0 @@
|
|||
# EWMA
|
||||
|
||||
EWMA: Exponentially Weighted Moving Average algorithms
|
||||
|
||||
This is a variant of [EWMA](https://github.com/VividCortex/ewma).
|
||||
|
||||
### Variant
|
||||
|
||||
During the "warmup" stage, it uses a just-in-time `alpha` to get a more reasonable average.
|
||||
|
||||
Just one form.
|
||||
|
||||
[EWMA Comparisons](https://github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/issues/1)
|
||||
|
||||
### Implementation
|
||||
|
||||
https://github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma
|
44
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/ewma.go
generated
vendored
44
vendor/github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma/ewma.go
generated
vendored
|
@ -1,44 +0,0 @@
|
|||
// Package ewma: exponentially weighted moving averages
|
||||
package ewma
|
||||
|
||||
// New EWMA by moving window size.
|
||||
func NewMovingAverage(slide int) *EWMA {
|
||||
return &EWMA{
|
||||
slide: slide,
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
type EWMA struct {
|
||||
// Too big slide is meaningless.
|
||||
slide int
|
||||
// Count before warmed up.
|
||||
count int
|
||||
// Decay by slide size.
|
||||
decay float64
|
||||
// The average.
|
||||
value float64
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Add a value to the series and update the moving average.
|
||||
func (a *EWMA) Add(value float64) {
|
||||
switch {
|
||||
case a.count <= a.slide:
|
||||
a.count++
|
||||
a.decay = 2 / float64(a.count + 1)
|
||||
a.value = a.value * (1 - a.decay) + value * a.decay
|
||||
default:
|
||||
a.value = a.value * (1 - a.decay) + value * a.decay
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Return the current EWMA value.
|
||||
func (a *EWMA) Value() float64 {
|
||||
return a.value
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Set the EWMA value for continuing.
|
||||
func (a *EWMA) Set(value float64) {
|
||||
a.value = value
|
||||
a.decay = 2 / float64(a.slide + 1)
|
||||
a.count = a.slide + 1
|
||||
}
|
6
vendor/modules.txt
vendored
6
vendor/modules.txt
vendored
|
@ -14,6 +14,9 @@ github.com/Masterminds/semver
|
|||
# github.com/OpenPeeDeeP/depguard v1.0.1
|
||||
## explicit; go 1.13
|
||||
github.com/OpenPeeDeeP/depguard
|
||||
# github.com/VividCortex/ewma v1.2.0
|
||||
## explicit; go 1.12
|
||||
github.com/VividCortex/ewma
|
||||
# github.com/alexkohler/prealloc v1.0.0
|
||||
## explicit; go 1.15
|
||||
github.com/alexkohler/prealloc/pkg
|
||||
|
@ -303,9 +306,6 @@ github.com/ldez/gomoddirectives
|
|||
# github.com/ldez/tagliatelle v0.2.0
|
||||
## explicit; go 1.16
|
||||
github.com/ldez/tagliatelle
|
||||
# github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma v0.0.0-20210320054258-4f227d7eb8a2
|
||||
## explicit; go 1.16
|
||||
github.com/lifenjoiner/ewma
|
||||
# github.com/magiconair/properties v1.8.1
|
||||
## explicit
|
||||
github.com/magiconair/properties
|
||||
|
|
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue